In a recent commentaryInterview, respected MMA analyst Luke Thomas offered a compelling look at the shifting landscape of combat sports—predicting not just change, but outright consolidation led by the UFC.

“The pie will shrink” — MMA’s Global Decline

According to Tapology data cited by Thomas, MMA events have been steadily declining in the United States, Brazil, and Russia—historically the sport’s strongholds. Only Japan and parts of Europe are seeing growth.

“They’ll still be profitable, but the pie will shrink.”
— Luke Thomas

Thomas warns that while MMA isn’t dying, the sport is clearly contracting. Fewer regional promotions. Fewer events. And that’s pushing the UFC into strategic expansion beyond its traditional base.

Ali Act, Boxing, and Saudi Money: A Power Play

Thomas noted that the UFC is actively lobbying to amend the Ali Act, which currently prevents promoters from creating their own boxing titles—a legal barrier that separates boxing from MMA’s vertically integrated model.

“They already have WWE. They already have UFC. If they can take over boxing with Saudi money, great.”

With Saudi investment and massive capital in hand, the UFC’s parent company (TKO Group) is moving into boxing, potentially reshaping it with the same top-down control they’ve applied to MMA.

Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu: “There for the Taking”

This is where the plot thickens. Thomas emphasizes that Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu —currently fragmented across dozens of promotions, styles, and rulesets—could be the UFC’s next acquisition target.

“BJJ is, you would think, there for the taking. And this would consolidate their position relative to decline.”

In a shrinking MMA world, BJJ represents fresh terrain: a dedicated community, global growth, and yet no central governing body or dominant league. By standardizing BJJ under the UFC banner, the organization could consolidate influence, attract a younger grappling audience, and deepen their dominance across all combat disciplines.

How the UFC Could Take Over Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

While the UFC was built on the very principles of BJJ—think Royce Gracie in UFC 1—the sport itself has remained largely fragmented and independent. That could soon change.

1. Leverage of Brand Power

The UFC is a global combat sports juggernaut with unmatched recognition.

BJJ lacks a central league or “championship” structure like the UFC provides in MMA.

If the UFC were to absorb an existing promotion (e.g., EBI, Polaris, or ADCC), it could quickly become the elite platform. It did that with Japan’s Pride FC 20 years to take over MMA.

Fighters and grapplers would follow the exposure, sponsorships, and media reach the UFC guarantees.

Think: “UFC Jiu-Jitsu” as the Champions League of grappling.

2. Standardizing the Chaos

One of BJJ’s biggest barriers to mainstream growth is its lack of uniform rules, time limits, and scoring systems.

The UFC thrives on structure and storytelling: title shots, rankings, contenders.

Bringing order to the BJJ scene (via weight classes, belts, or league seasons) would:

Help casual fans understand matches

Create clear rivalries and narratives

Attract consistent broadcast and sponsorship deals

This kind of standardization is exactly what made MMA more watchable—and profitable.

3. Saudi-Backed Expansion & TKO Group Strategy

Luke Thomas mentions the role of Saudi funding and the UFC’s umbrella company, TKO Group, which already owns UFC and WWE.

With vast capital from Saudi partnerships and a proven media infrastructure (via ESPN and WWE connections), the UFC can scale BJJ events fast.

They don’t need to build a BJJ fanbase from scratch—they already have millions of UFC fans who appreciate grappling, especially with stars like Charles Oliveira, Mackenzie Dern, and Kron Gracie.

“If they can take over boxing with Saudi money, great.” — Luke Thomas

So why not take over BJJ too?

4. Monetization through Fight Pass & Merch

The UFC has its own streaming service, UFC Fight Pass, which already hosts some BJJ and grappling content.

They could easily feature exclusive BJJ events, mini-docs, technique breakdowns, or even a BJJ reality show.

Combine that with branded gis, rashguards, and events, and it becomes a commercial machine.

5. Cross-Promotion with UFC Fighters

UFC fighters who are BJJ black belts could compete in off-season grappling superfights, adding star power to BJJ cards.

Imagine Gilbert Burns vs. Craig Jones or Islam Makhachev vs. Nicholas Meregali on a UFC-branded BJJ event.

This would draw both grappling fans and MMA fans—a built-in dual audience.

Why This Matters

Economically, owning BJJ could give the UFC new events to broadcast, merchandise to sell, and athletes to cross-promote.

Culturally, it positions the UFC not just as a fight league, but as the central pillar of all modern combat sports.

Strategically, it’s a response to the contraction of MMA—absorbing new ground while the old world shrinks.

Thomas isn’t just making predictions—he’s pointing out a playbook in motion. From lobbying for boxing control to eyeing BJJ as a viable conquest, the UFC is no longer content to be the king of MMA. It wants the whole board.

Whether you see that as genius strategy or worrying monopolization, one thing is clear: the fight game is evolving fast—and the UFC aims to be the one holding the reins.