Guest post by James Duscio, a BJJ black belt under Walter cascao vital and runs Cascao Evolution BJJ out of Las Vegas nv.

We are about to have one of the most anticipated fights of the year with McGregor vs Khabib. The 26-0 UFC and combat Sambo World Champion will face the UFC two weight division World Champion. At first glance, many think of this fight as striker vs grappler, but make no mistake, this is a MMA fight where both fighters are dangerous in areas outside of their obvious strengths. So what does Khabib have to do to secure a win against McGregor that goes beyond the take him down and ground and pound him game plan?

Every fight in the UFC starts on the feet so that’s where we will start as well. When it comes to striking, the two fighters have very different styles. McGregor has un upright Karate stance that is very wide and utilizes reach without overextension while being ready for counters. And Khabib has a forward moving approach that is a little loopy and committed with power and intention to enter for the clinch or takedown. In this dimension, Khabib has to be aware of the counter punching by McGregor and maybe tighten up his defense through head movement or arm guarding while throwing his own strikes, because the Irishman does have knockout power. Second, the Russian cannot stand in the pocket and try to figure out his opponent. This is what many of McGregor’s opponents have done. This will only give Conor the opportunity to set up his attacks. When Khabib comes in, the intention and action must be implemented immediately. And third, bringing McGregor against the cage could definitely help, because the pressure and clinch fighting could tire out the arms and make McGregor’s punches tired and slow for the later rounds, while also protecting Khabib from the reach advantage.

The second major area of the fight that will surely be a game changing battle is the takedown area. Nobody does takedowns like Khabib. Now McGregor definitely has legitimate takedown defense and prevents most takedowns before most realize an attempt at one was beginning. He uses his reach and frames to stop the initial entry and follows up with striking counters. If the takedowns get beyond that point he does a solid job at stopping most single and double leg attempts as well. The key for Khabib is to not rely on the classic wrestling shots, because at this point they are predictable and most likely the best option for Conor to counter with. Instead Khabib has to utilize his Sambo and Judo takedowns from the clinch or against the cage that are far more unpredictable and more complex to defend. And the reason Khabib has had so much success in this area is simply do to the fact that those type of takedowns chain and combo well off each other, where a failed single leg or double leg often leaves you under your opponent with fewer options.

Now the fun part, the ground game. McGregor does not get enough credit for his BJJ skills. He flows great, has solid defense and works with some really high level black belts. The problem is that the Russian he is going to face eats black belts for breakfast. Khabib has to do what Khabib always does on the ground, use pressure on Conor to inhibit his movement. No movement, no escapes or getting back up to the feet. Also this type of ground work sucks the breath and cardio out of an opponent. Another factor on the ground is Khabib’s ground and pound. He usually traps a limb and by trapping a limb before striking, you not only take away your opponents ability to block the strike, but also their ability to escape the position. This is one of the main reasons Khabib’s fights, once on the ground are a pure mauling. Sometimes those beatings are not enough to stop a fight, but those beatings also open up submissions that Khabib is not shy to take.

This fight goes beyond the skill set of the two fighters, this fight is going to be decided by who has the better game plan and strategy. I give McGregor the advantage on the feet and Khabib the advantage with the clinch, cage, takedown, ground and cardio. But remember, all those advantages can be taken away by one devastating punch or mistake. It’s going to be a good one.

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