The ADCC World Championship returns on September 12–13, 2026, at Tauron Arena in Kraków, Poland. With several defending champions absent, a new generation of contenders emerging, and some of the deepest brackets in recent memory, this could be one of the most unpredictable editions of the tournament.

The official brackets are scheduled for release on September 11, so these are pre-bracket predictions rather than forecasts of confirmed matchups. A favorable draw, a difficult stylistic opponent, or one exhausting overtime match could change everything.

For this preview, BJJEE has taken a fresh look at the competitors, their styles, recent form, and how their games may translate to the ADCC ruleset. We have also included a few bold picks that differ from the conventional favorites. The full competitor list is available through ADCC’s official roster.

Men’s -66 kg: Dorian Olivarez

Our pick: Dorian Olivarez
Main threats: Diego Pato, Fabricio Andrey, Kennedy Maciel
Dark horse: Gavin Corbe

The absence of two-time champion Diogo Reis leaves the 66 kg division wide open, but it does not make the bracket any easier. Diego Pato brings elite submission ability, Fabricio Andrey is one of the most dangerous attacking grapplers in the field, and Kennedy Maciel has the experience to make life difficult for anyone.

Our pick is Dorian Olivarez. His wrestling, pace, and ability to impose himself physically make him particularly well suited to ADCC. He is comfortable initiating exchanges rather than waiting for an opponent to engage, and that can become a major advantage when matches reach the points period or overtime.

Pato may be the most dangerous submission threat in the division, but Olivarez has the tools to control where the match takes place and force opponents to work at his tempo. In a bracket where small margins will matter, that combination gives him our edge.

Prediction: Dorian Olivarez wins gold, with Diego Pato as his biggest threat.

Men’s -77 kg: Dante Leon Finally Gets His Gold

Our pick: Dante Leon
Main threats: Mateusz Szczeciński, PJ Barch, Vagner Rocha
Dark horse: Taylor Pearman

With Mica Galvão absent, the 77 kg division will crown a new champion. It is also one of the most difficult brackets to predict because the leading contenders bring very different styles.

Mateusz Szczeciński is a constant submission threat, particularly when opponents allow him access to the legs. PJ Barch has the wrestling and positional discipline to win difficult matches, while Vagner Rocha brings experience, physicality, and a game that has repeatedly proved effective under ADCC rules.

However, our pick is Dante Leon.

Leon has spent years competing against the highest level of opposition and has developed into one of the most complete grapplers in the division. He can wrestle, pass, defend submissions, and win tactical matches without needing everything to go his way. That versatility is especially valuable over a long ADCC weekend.

The key for Leon will be avoiding prolonged defensive exchanges against the division’s best leg-lockers and making his wrestling and top game count. If he can do that, this could finally be the year he turns his consistency into an ADCC world title.

Prediction: Dante Leon wins gold. Mateusz Szczeciński is the opponent we would least want to see him face early.

Men’s -88 kg: Pawel Jaworski’s Moment

Our pick: Pawel Jaworski
Main threats: Jozef Chen, Gustavo Batista, Marlon Tajik
Dark horses: Chris Wojcik, Lucas Kanard

The 88 kg division may be the most intriguing bracket of the entire tournament. With defending champion Giancarlo Bodoni absent, there is no clear favorite, and several young athletes have a realistic opportunity to establish themselves as the next major name in the division.

Jozef Chen has the technical ability to beat almost anyone. Gustavo Batista brings a powerful, experienced game, while Chris Wojcik and Lucas Kanard are capable of producing difficult stylistic matchups.

But our pick is Pawel Jaworski.

Jaworski enters ADCC with significant momentum after submitting Rafael Lovato Jr. by kneebar in just 1:51 at ONE Fight Night 47, earning a $50,000 performance bonus. Taking that match only eight days before ADCC was a risk, but the result gives him another major victory and valuable experience against an elite opponent.

What makes Jaworski especially dangerous is his ability to turn an exchange into a submission opportunity quickly. He does not need to dominate an entire match to finish it, and that is a valuable weapon in a tournament where competitors may become increasingly tired as the rounds progress.

We also expect Marlon Tajik to be a serious medal contender. The Swedish Trials winner has the athleticism, confidence, and competitive upside to make a deep run. He may not receive the same attention as Chen or Jaworski, but we would not be surprised to see him reach the podium.

Prediction: Pawel Jaworski wins gold, with Marlon Tajik finishing in the top three.

Men’s -99 kg: Kaynan Duarte Remains the Man to Beat

Our pick: Kaynan Duarte
Main threats: Luke Griffith, Adam Wardziński, Declan Moody
Dark horse: Michael Pixley

The 99 kg division is arguably the strongest bracket on paper. Kaynan Duarte, Luke Griffith, Adam Wardziński, Michael Pixley, Declan Moody, Eoghan O’Flanagan, and several other dangerous competitors make this a division where even the favorites could face a difficult first-round matchup.

Declan Moody is an exciting prospect with the size and skills to threaten anyone, while Luke Griffith has the submission ability and physical attributes to win the entire tournament. Adam Wardziński’s experience and highly developed positional game also make him a serious contender.

Nevertheless, we are picking Kaynan Duarte.

Duarte has repeatedly demonstrated that he knows how to perform at ADCC. His combination of wrestling, passing, positional control, and tournament experience makes him exceptionally difficult to beat. He is not dependent on one particular submission or one phase of grappling; he can adapt his approach depending on the opponent.

The biggest question is whether the depth of this bracket will force him into several exhausting matches before the final. If he can manage his energy and avoid unnecessary risks, we believe his experience will make the difference.

Prediction: Kaynan Duarte wins gold, with Luke Griffith as our strongest alternative.

Men’s +99 kg: Ruslan Abdulaev Is Our Bold Pick

Our pick: Ruslan Abdulaev
Main threats: Felipe Pena, Victor Hugo, Daniel Manasoiu
Dark horse: Pouya Rahmani

The heavyweight division features some of the biggest names in professional grappling. Defending champion Felipe Pena returns, Victor Hugo remains one of the most accomplished competitors in the field, and Daniel Manasoiu has the size and submission ability to make any match dangerous.

But our pick is Ruslan Abdulaev.

Abdulaev is a top-level grappler who has not always received the same international attention as some of the more established ADCC names. His previous victories over elite opposition, including Kaynan Duarte, demonstrate that he is capable of competing with the very best. His physicality, wrestling, and ability to impose a demanding pace make him a particularly interesting heavyweight contender.

The key question is how his game translates against the larger, more experienced specialists in this bracket. Felipe Pena and Victor Hugo have the technical depth to punish mistakes, while Manasoiu can create submission threats from positions where many heavyweights would simply stall.

However, Abdulaev has the potential to disrupt the established hierarchy. If he can dictate the standing exchanges, avoid getting trapped underneath the larger guard players, and maintain his pace through the later rounds, we believe he can make a championship run.

Prediction: Ruslan Abdulaev wins gold. This is our boldest pick of the tournament.

Women’s -55 kg: Mayssa Bastos

Our pick: Mayssa Bastos
Main threats: Jasmine Rocha, Ana Mayordomo, Anna Rodrigues
Dark horse: Valerie Hamilton

With Adele Fornarino absent, the 55 kg division presents an opportunity for a new champion. Mayssa Bastos is one of the most accomplished competitors in the sport, but ADCC presents a different challenge from the gi competitions where she has built much of her legacy.

Jasmine Rocha brings an aggressive, submission-oriented game, while Ana Mayordomo has the experience and ability to make a deep run. Anna Rodrigues is another athlete who cannot be overlooked.

Our pick is Mayssa Bastos. Her technical precision, guard retention, and ability to create scoring opportunities make her a difficult opponent for anyone. The challenge will be adapting those strengths to ADCC’s points structure and avoiding matches where a stronger wrestler can control the pace.

If Bastos can establish her preferred exchanges and prevent opponents from turning the match into a purely physical battle, she has the tools to win her first ADCC world title.

Prediction: Mayssa Bastos wins gold.

Women’s -65 kg: Sarah Galvão

Our pick: Sarah Galvão
Main threats: Ana Carolina Vieira, Morgan Black, Livia Barasine
Dark horse: Nadia Frankland

Defending champion Ana Carolina Vieira returns with the experience and technical ability to retain her title. However, Sarah Galvão represents one of the most exciting challenges in the division.

Galvão’s pace, wrestling, and willingness to attack make her particularly dangerous under ADCC rules. She is capable of forcing opponents into difficult exchanges and maintaining pressure throughout a match.

Vieira’s experience could become decisive if the final turns into a tactical battle, but we believe Galvão’s athleticism and ability to dictate the tempo give her the edge.

Prediction: Sarah Galvão wins gold, potentially in a final against Ana Carolina Vieira.

Women’s +65 kg: Helena Crevar

Our pick: Helena Crevar
Main threats: Gabrieli Pessanha, Yara Soares, Elizabeth Mitrovic
Dark horse: Nia Blackman

The women’s heavyweight division presents a fascinating contrast between technical precision and physical size. Gabrieli Pessanha is one of the most accomplished gi competitors in history and has the strength and positional ability to dominate opponents. Yara Soares is another major threat, while Elizabeth Mitrovic and Nia Blackman add depth to the bracket.

Our pick, however, is Helena Crevar.

Crevar’s no-gi experience, guard game, and submission ability make her a particularly dangerous opponent in this ruleset. Moving up in weight creates an obvious challenge, but it also gives her the opportunity to test her technical game against larger athletes who may not be as comfortable in prolonged submission exchanges.

The biggest question is whether she can manage the physicality of Pessanha and the other heavyweights. If she can avoid being pinned underneath and create the attacking positions she prefers, we believe she has the tools to win.

Prediction: Helena Crevar wins gold, with Gabrieli Pessanha as her biggest threat.

Super Fight: Kaynan Duarte vs. Yuri Simoes

Our pick: Kaynan Duarte

The Super Fight brings together two of ADCC’s most accomplished competitors. Yuri Simoes has the experience, wrestling, and tactical discipline to make this a difficult match, but Duarte enters with the more dynamic overall game.

If Duarte can establish his passing and positional control, he should be able to create the clearer scoring opportunities. Simoes will look to slow the match down, make the standing exchanges competitive, and force Duarte into a tactical battle.

Prediction: Kaynan Duarte wins the Super Fight.

BJJEE’s Gold Medal Predictions

What to Expect This Weekend

ADCC 2026 may not have the same promotional momentum as the Las Vegas editions, but the competition itself has the potential to produce a memorable tournament. Several divisions are without their defending champions, younger athletes are arriving with genuine title ambitions, and the depth of the 99 kg and 88 kg brackets makes them especially difficult to predict.

The biggest story could be the emergence of a new generation. Dorian Olivarez, Pawel Jaworski, Marlon Tajik, Jozef Chen, and Helena Crevar all have opportunities to make major statements, while established champions such as Kaynan Duarte and Felipe Pena will be trying to prove that experience still matters.

Our boldest prediction is Ruslan Abdulaev at heavyweight. If he can turn his previous success against elite opposition into a full ADCC tournament run, he could become one of the biggest stories of the weekend.

Who are your picks for ADCC 2026? Which division will produce the biggest upset, and who is your dark horse to win gold? Let us know in the comments.

Editor’s note: These predictions are based on the competitor list available on September 9, 2026. Official brackets are expected on September 11, and late withdrawals or replacements may change the outlook.

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